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New Data from Turkey Export Climate Index

Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) measured the operating conditions of the Turkish manufacturing sector in the main export markets. Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index was 53.9 in March. It showed that the improvement in the export climate of manufacturers continues.

Some of the main export markets loosened the COVID-19 measures. Accordingly, the improvement in the export climate of Turkish manufacturers continued at the end of the first quarter. In March, disruptions caused by the Covid-19 outbreak were relatively reduced. As a result, production growth accelerated in some main export markets. 

Growth rates hit an eight-month high in the US and a nine-month high in the UK. In France, the increase in production accelerated. However, the conflict in Ukraine affected production. There was a loss of momentum in the production increase of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands. In Russia, where production fell sharply, the three-month growth period came to an end. The growth rate of non-oil economic activity in the UAE remained strong. On the other hand, the most significant slowdown among the countries happened in Hong Kong.

ICI Turkey Climate Index

The Turkish Manufacturing Sector Export Climate Index uses national PMI surveys for calculations. PMI makes calculations by bringing together and weighting production indices. The weights are created using statistics on the share of export markets in Turkish manufacturing exports. This index is a preliminary indicator. Thanks to the index, the development and potential of Turkey’s main export markets can be monitored. It also contains tips on which markets to focus on.

Istanbul Chamber of Industry and IHS Markit are working on this index. Their aim is to evaluate the global environment surrounding the Turkish industry. The index draws on data from surveys regularly conducted in more than 40 countries by IHS Markit. Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) measures the operating conditions of the Turkish manufacturing sector in the main export markets. announced the results of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index for the period of March 2022. 

All figures measured above the threshold value of 50.0 in the index point to an improvement in the export climate. On the other hand, values ​​below 50 indicate deterioration. The index showed that the improvement in the export climate of manufacturers continues. Thus, export demand strengthened for the fourteenth month in a row.

Improvement Continues

Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index became 53.9 in March. This showed that the improvement in the export climate of the manufacturers continued. Thus, export demand strengthened for fourteen months in a row. However, the decrease in the index, which was 55.2 in February, indicated that the improvement was more limited.

The index continued its recovery, which started after 19.1 in April 2020, the lowest level in data history. In July 2020, it exceeded the threshold of 50 for the first time. After that, it continued to stay above the threshold value.

Growth in the Middle East 

Last December, some Middle Eastern countries gave their growth signals. The UAE had the highest increase in nearly two and a half years. But, unlike March, December was more difficult for other countries. Economic activity in Egypt and Lebanon continued to shrink. However, March brought more positive developments. The growth rate of non-oil economic activity in the United Arab Emirates remained strong in March. Besides, it did not show a significant change compared to February. 

The data pointed out that the growth in Qatar has also gained momentum. In the Middle East, the ongoing decrease in production in Egypt reached the highest rate in the last 21 months. The most significant slowdown among the countries tracked in March was Hong Kong. The restrictions imposed due to the severe Covid-19 wave in this country led to widespread production losses. A similar situation occurred in China, albeit at a lower intensity. Production in this country recorded the sharpest decrease in more than two years.

Andrew Harker, Global Economy Director at S&P, commented on the index:

“Export demand conditions remained resilient at the end of the first quarter. But, the wide-ranging effects of the war in Ukraine, such as loss of confidence in the business world, price increases, and supply chain disruptions, have the potential to limit manufacturers’ export opportunities in the second quarter of the year.”

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